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Who will win the Mayoral elections? (Updated 01/05/2024)
On May 2nd, ten ‘Metro Mayors’ will be up for election, governing a record 26 million people – 45% of the English population.
With Metro Mayors holding powers over transport, planning, housing and more, these elections will have a big impact on the lives of millions of people. So who will win?
Background
Outside of London, regional government in England is a very recent phenomenon. After Blair’s failed attempts in the early 2000s to introduce regional assemblies, the Tories implemented a system of ‘Metro Mayors’ – directly elected executive leaders modelled on the London Mayor, who govern a region composed of multiple local authorities.
The first elections took place in 2017, and by 2025 over 30 million people (54% of England) will be governed by a regional leader. The system has resulted in numerous policy changes, most notably the nationalisation of buses in Greater Manchester.
The are currently 10 Mayors, collectively governing 23 million people (40% of England). Of these, Labour have 7, the Conservatives have 2 and one is an ex-Labour independent.
Modelling
As with my PCC projections, I’ve built a version of my seat projection model (based on the Strong Transition Model developed by Martin Baxter) for the PCC and Mayoral contests. It’s virtually the same as outlined in my recent model explanation, with one exception: because Mayoral areas vary widely in population, I have used the strong/weak balance of votes in each particular area rather than using national figures for the major parties.
With the candidate lists now released, I have had to make some adjustments. In areas where Greens and Reform are not standing, I have redistributed their votes to second preferences based on Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now polling from last year; in areas where major parties are running where they did not stand last time (e.g. Tees Valley) I have used local election results and the second preference polling to estimate the ‘notional’ vote share for that party in the previous contest.
Furthermore, I place a strong emphasis on regional polling. Polls of the contests (e.g. London and the West Midlands) get a 90% weighting in my calculations, with the standard model output making up the rest of the projection (10%).
Headline projection
Based on the poll average in April 2024 (Lab +20), my headline projected result for the ten Metro Mayoral elections is as follows:
- Labour: 9 (+3)
- Conservative: 1 (-2)
This means that following the elections, the balance of Mayors will be:
- Labour: 9 Mayors (+3), governing 25 million people
- Conservative: 1 Mayors (-2), governing 1 million people
Labour would gain the West Midlands from the Conservatives by a tiny margin (Lab+2), while winning the new Mayoral posts in the East Midlands (Lab+13) and North Yorkshire (Lab+12) by double digits. In the North East, Labour is neck-and-neck with independent socialist Jamie Driscoll (Lab+2), while the Tories lead only in Tees Valley (Con+6).
Contests to watch
- North Yorkshire Mayor (Lab+12)
This new combination Metro Mayor/PCC position is a major opportunity for a Labour pickup. The Conservatives easily won the county of North Yorkshire in the 2021 PCC elections (Con+21) and the 2022 council elections (Con+24). With Labour 20pts ahead in national polls, national trends in the past few months have pointed to only a narrow Conservative win of less than 5pts – too close for comfort.
But in the past week, the Labour Together organisation published a shocking poll that showed Labour a whopping 14pts ahead of the Conservatives. As with other local polls, my model weights this very highly, giving Labour a 12pt lead overall in my projection.
Projected result:
🟥 LAB 40% (+14)
🟦 CON 28% (-19)
🟩 GRN 11% (New)
🟧 LD 11% (-2)
⬜️ OTH 10% (-4)
- Greater Manchester (Lab +53)
The Greater Manchester Mayor, Andy Burnham, is running for a third term in these elections. Although his contest is not in any way competitive (he’s projected to win by 53pts), it is worth watching to see how well he performs relative to Labour (he massively outperformed them in the 2021 election) and how big his margin is. It is entirely plausible that Burnham will emerge as the Mayor with the biggest personal mandate in these elections, surpassing the previous record-holder (Ben Houchen of Tees Valley).
Projected result:
🟥 LAB 64% (-3)
🟪 REF 11% (+9)
🟦 CON 10% (-10)
🟩 GRN 4% (=)
🟧 LD 4% (+1)
⬜️ OTH 8% (+5)
- Tees Valley (Con +6)
Another incumbent Mayor running for a third term is Ben Houchen, the Conservative Mayor of Tees Valley. In 2021, Houchen won a jaw-dropping 73% of first preference votes, the biggest personal mandate of any regional leader. My model initially pointed to a strong win for Houchen, but poll averages only show a narrow lead for the Conservative (Con+3). Overall, my model now suggests a 6pt victory for Houchen.
Projected result:
🟦 CON 50% (-23)
🟥 LAB 44% (+17)
🟧 LD 6% (New)
- West Midlands (Lab +2)
The contest that is doubtless making the Conservatives most anxious, however, is the West Midlands. Conservative incumbent Andy Street outperformed his party in 2021, winning a second term by a healthy margin.
Polls suggest he is again set to outperform his party, but it might not be enough to win. The contest is currently very close, with the average of polls showing Labour leading by 1pt. Overall, my model points to Labour winning by 2pts.
Projected result:
🟥 LAB 41% (+1)
🟦 CON 39% (-10)
🟪 REF 7% (+5)
🟩 GRN 6% (=)
🟧 LD 4% (+1)
⬜️ OTH 3% (+3)
- North East (Lab +2)
The final contest worth watching is the election for Mayor of the North East. This election is the most controversial, as Labour blocked incumbent North of Tyne Mayor Jamie Driscoll from standing to be their candidate and selected Northumbria Police Commissioner Kim McGuinness instead. Driscoll subsequently quit Labour in protest, and is running as an independent, having raised £145,000 from supporters through crowdfunding.
On paper (without accounting for Driscoll) Labour would be set to win easily with 50% of the vote to the Tories’ 18%. But a shock poll from More in Common suggests that Driscoll is just 2pts behind Labour, reportedly drawing votes from both Labour and the Conservatives. If he does win, it will be a massive embarrassment for Keir Starmer, on par with Ken Livingstone’s victory as an independent candidate in the 2000 London Mayoral election.
Polling from More in Common (19-24 April):
🟥 LAB 35% (-11)
⬜️ IND 33% (New)
🟪 REF 14% (New)
🟦 CON 11% (-23)
🟩 GRN 4% (New)
🟧 LD 4% (-7)
Conclusion
Labour goes into these elections with a massive lead in Mayors, meaning there’s little scope for growth in terms of headline figures. Of 10 Mayors currently in office, Labour won 8 of them in the previous election (80%) with one later quitting. My model currently predicts that after these elections, Labour will have 83% of all Mayors (10 of 12), which is not a big step forward.
However, the real story will be the individual results themselves. If the Tories hold Tees Valley but with a significantly reduced majority, that will point to difficulties for the Tories in GE2024. If Labour gains the West Midlands Mayor by a huge margin, that will suggest the Tories are struggling in a key marginal region. And if Driscoll defeats Labour in the North East, it will suggest that Starmer will face major challenges in urban seats from independents and Greens.
In short, even a dramatic win for Labour in these elections will not result in much change overall, but the important information will be in the detailed results. I’ll be sure to explore all of them after May 2nd, so stay tuned!
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