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With the 2024 general election now confirmed to be taking place in the latter half of this year, attention will once again focus on the Police and Crime Commissioners (PCC), Metro Mayor and local council elections taking place on 2nd May.
In this article I’ll preview the elections for Police Commissioners and Metro Mayors with policing responsibilities (London, Manchester and the three Yorkshire Mayors). I’ll look at the remaining regional leader elections in another piece.
Background
Police and Crime Commissioners (PCCs) are directly-elected positions that were introduced by the Conservative/Lib Dem coalition government in 2012, replacing Police Authorities. They oversee the work of police forces in England and Wales, hold the Chief Constable in each policing area to account and produce a Police and Crime plan. Scotland does not have PCCs, as the Scottish Parliament controls policing.
PCCs oversee policing in 37 of the 42 policing areas, which largely correspond to historic county boundaries. In five areas (London, Manchester, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire and North Yorkshire) the elected Mayor holds the responsibilities of a PCC.
In May 2021, the Conservatives won 30 PCCs (+10); Labour 11 (-6); Plaid Cymru 1 (-1) and independents none (-3). In 2012 and 2016 independents performed very well in PCC elections – winning 11 PCCs – but voters have become increasingly partisan and today all PCCs belong to one of the major political parties. As a result, candidates increasingly do not bother coming forward. In 2024, only 7 independent candidates are running, down from 52 in 2012.
As you might expect for a relatively powerless and unknown office, turnout for PCC elections has historically been very low. In the first elections – held in late 2012 – turnout was just 15% (rising to 18% if you include London’s election in May of that year). Even in 2016, when the contests were held alongside local elections in many areas, turnout was just 26%.
However, in 2021 turnout began to improve, rising to 35%. Even still, this was largely correlated with the presence of other elections. In Dorset (no other elections), just 26% turned out; in Powys (simultaneous Welsh Parliament election) turnout was 51%. This will likely be an issue again, with turnout in Wales likely to plunge as there are no simultaneous elections being held this year. I would not be surprised if turnout falls across England and Wales by a substantial amount, given the lack of other elections outside the ‘Metro Mayor’ regions.
Another important piece of background information is the change in the voting system. In 2021, the elections used the Supplementary Vote (SV), which gave voters a second preference. This resulted in the Tories losing in two Welsh PCC areas (one to Labour and one to Plaid Cymru) after second preferences were taken into account.
However, SV has now been replaced with first-past-the-post (FPTP), the system used in British general elections. This means that on paper (or “notionally”), the Conservatives won 32 PCCs in 2021, as they won the most first preferences in 32 policing areas.
In theory, this change of system would be good for the Conservatives, as opposition parties’ voters cannot pool their votes in the second round to block the Conservatives from winning. But in practice, given Labour’s huge poll lead, it likely won’t make much of a difference – though it might save some Tory PCCs from defeat in close contests.
Modelling
Ahead of these elections, I’ve built a version of my seat projection model (based on the Strong Transition Model developed by Martin Baxter) for the PCC and Mayoral contests. It’s virtually the same as outlined in my recent model explanation, with one exception: because PCC areas vary widely in population, I have used the strong/weak balance of votes in each particular area rather than using national figures for the major parties.
However, with the candidate lists now released, I have had to make some major adjustments. Just 13 Greens and 4 Reform UK candidates are standing, with the Lib Dems not standing in Cleveland; in areas where these parties are not running, I have redistributed their votes to second preferences based on Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now polling from last year.
Headline projection
Based on the poll average in March 2024 (Lab +20), my headline projected result for the PCC and Metro Mayoral elections is as follows:
- Labour: 24 (+13)
- Conservative: 16 (-14)
- Liberal Democrat: 2 (+2)
- Plaid Cymru: 0 (-1)
The Conservatives would experience a crushing defeat, losing 14 of their 30 PCCs. Labour would benefit most, gaining across England (from Bedfordshire to Humberside) but the Lib Dems would also gain two PCCs in southern counties.
Marginal areas
22 areas would be decided by a margin of more than 10% (18 Lab, 3 Con and 1 LD), making the result fairly clear in advance – especially in the five areas where Labour leads by 40pts+.
The battleground, then, is in the 20 remaining contests where the result is within 10pts. These marginal contests are currently disproportionately projected to be won by the Conservatives, meaning that if they underperform relative to polls (entirely possible) their implied overall result of 16 seats could turn out to be an overstatement.
11 of these 21 contests are very marginal (within 5pts). These are as follows:
- Cumbria (Con +4.9)
- North Yorkshire (Con +4.7)
- Dyfed-Powys (Lab +3.9)
- Warwickshire (Con +3.7)
- Hertfordshire (Con +2.1)
- Cleveland (Lab +1.6)
- Norfolk (Con +1.4)
- Wiltshire (LD +0.5)
- Leicestershire (Lab +0.5)
- Gloucestershire (Con +0.4)
- Devon and Cornwall (Lab +0.1)
Aside from Powys (which was a three-way Con/Lab/Plaid marginal), the Conservatives won all of these policing areas by double digits in 2021, many with over 50% of first preferences. The fact that these are now marginal contests is a reflection of the Tories’ unpopularity.
Contests to watch
So, which elections should you be particularly following on election night? I would pick the following five PCC/Mayoral contests:
- North Yorkshire Mayor (Con+5)
This new combination Metro Mayor/PCC position is a major opportunity for a Labour pickup, but it’s also quite challenging. The Conservatives easily won the county of North Yorkshire in the 2021 PCC elections (Con+21) and the 2022 council election (Con+24). National trends point to a 5pt Conservative win, but that’s too close for comfort in my opinion. If Labour win here, that suggests they’ve won a huge victory nationally. But if they lose, they shouldn’t really be too embarrassed – they could easily win nationally while losing here.
- Suffolk Police and Crime Commissioner (Con+10)
On paper, Suffolk looks set to be easily won by the Conservatives (Con+10) with Labour as the runners-up. But Suffolk has some unique political circumstances that might produce an electoral earthquake.
The county is home to the first majority Green Party council (Mid Suffolk), and the ecologist party has a plurality on 3 of the county’s 5 councils. Aggregating the results of the 2023 council elections puts the Greens in second place in Suffolk on 25%, with the Tories ahead by single digits on 33% – and that was with the Greens not contesting a significant number of wards.
With the Greens on the ballot in all areas in the PCC election, there is a significant chance for the party to pick up its first Police and Crime Commissioner. If that happens, the winner would become the most powerful Green politician in British history.
- Surrey Police and Crime Commissioner (LD +12)
Surrey is the best opportunity for the Liberal Democrats to gain their first PCC. In the 2023 local elections, they won the popular vote in the county by 31% to 30%, with Labour far behind in third place on 12%. Taking into account likely tactical voting, my model suggests a 12pt win for the Lib Dems in Surrey.
If they do gain Surrey’s PCC, it would indicate that they are indeed recovering in their old southern strongholds and expanding into previously safe Tory areas – which would point to a sizeable Lib Dem Parliamentary Party in the 2024 general election. One to watch.
- Bedfordshire Police and Crime Commissioner (Lab +17)
The Bedfordshire Police Commissioner election is a classic marginal area. Labour won in 2012, then lost it in 2016 (Con+2) and 2021 (Con+7) by low single-digit margins. My projection model currently suggests Labour would win by 17 percentage points, and local election results show Labour in the lead (though only with 28% of the vote).
If Labour gains Bedfordshire by a decisive double-digit margin on election night, it would point to a clear Labour win nationwide. If Labour wins an ultra-landslide result (which it might), Labour should expect to be winning well over 50% of the vote in Bedfordshire. Either way, a win in Bedfordshire would be a bellwether for the national result.
- Devon and Cornwall Police and Crime Commissioner (Lab +0.1)
Finally, the most marginal election according to my model is Devon and Cornwall. Thanks to the Greens opting not to stand (after winning 12% in 2021), Labour are projected to win by a razor-thin margin of 0.05pts, which equates to just ~250 votes out of ~500,000.
Aggregating the most recent local elections, the Conservatives won the popular vote by 2pts, but it was a five-cornered contest (Con 27%, LD 25%, Lab 18%, Ind 16%, Green 12%). Given the propensity of centre-left voters to vote tactically, that’s a very difficult position for the Tories to be in.
Due to the closeness of my projection, I consider this one of the top contests to watch on election night. But if the Tories manage to eke out a narrow win in Devon and Cornwall, it doesn’t really say much about Labour’s chances – this is at the very upper end of potential Labour gains, and they could lose it handily whilst still winning a crushing victory.
Conclusion
Labour has never held a plurality of Police Commissioners in England, but with the Tories’ popularity plunging, they’ve never had a better chance of achieving that goal. My model points to a victory for Labour, with the party taking 24 of the 42 posts (57%).
This may seems very low given Labour’s 20pt lead (their estimated share of Commons seats is currently 70%), but it is worth noting two things.
Firstly, policing areas vary massively in population; unlike Commons constituencies (roughly equal population), policing areas are drawn based on geography. Consequently, the number of PCCs per party is not representative of popular support. London (population: 9 million) only has 1 PCC, the same as Cumbria (population: 500,000).
If the 42 PCCs were allocated based on population and not geography, Greater London would have 6 PCCs and Wales would have 2. Instead, London has 1 and Wales has 4. To be clear, this is not a criticism – this is simply how policing is organised. In order to assess the scale of a party’s victory, we should look at the total population governed following the election.
In terms of population governed, Labour’s projected win would be enormous: 39 million people (67%) would live in areas governed by Labour, compared to 17 million people governed by Tories (30%) and 2 million by Lib Dems (3%).
Secondly, one of the factors causing Labour’s national lead to be so large (+20) is that Reform is drawing millions of votes from the Tories. But Reform is only standing 4 candidates for the 42 policing areas (down from 14 in 2021), so my model assumes that most of these Reform voters (~60%) will opt for the Conservatives in the absence of a Reform candidate. This boosts the Tory vote. Meanwhile, more Greens are running (13, up from 7), reducing the Labour vote.
It’s difficult to say what impact Labour’s huge victory would have on policing; Labour and the Tories largely share similar attitudes to policing and tackling crime, so we shouldn’t expect too many policy changes as a result of these elections. Furthermore, PCCs are a relatively powerless position. But such a large change in a single election would still be unprecedented.
Finally, it is possible that these will be the last PCC elections. Labour opposed the creation of PCCs, and with a Labour government set to take office with a massive majority later in the year, they may well abolish the office of PCC before the next elections (due in 2028).
I’ll look at all Mayoral elections and local elections in future articles! Thanks for reading.
Stats for Lefties 